February 11, 2025 — Although optimism among small businesses and midsize companies about the economy is creating a favorable environment for commercial banks this year, banks face new competition in the battle for loan business, deposits and digital innovation.
A new report from Crisil Coalition Greenwich, Top trends to watch in U.S. commercial banking in 2025, highlights several emerging challenges facing commercial banks—especially smaller banks—and analyzes how the emergence of digital banking platforms equipped with powerful data analytics and AI applications is changing the game for companies and banks alike.
New loans, new competition for banks Although all signs point to increased loan growth for the rest of 2025, the concerning news for banks is they may claim a smaller share of that new business this year. Data from Crisil Coalition Greenwich research shows that nearly a quarter of middle market companies and 16% of small businesses are planning to seek out funding from non-traditional lenders.
The big just keep getting bigger With the economy and financial markets seemingly firing on all cylinders, bank deposits appear on course for strong growth in 2025. For better or worse, it’s possible that many of those new deposits will find their way to the four biggest U.S. banks. Crisil Coalition Greenwich research suggests the 2023 banking crisis did lasting damage to the perception of safety at smaller banks. Since then, there has been a steady decline in trust ratings for community banks, regional banks and even super-regionals. The only exception: the big national banks that business owners and executives see as “safe.”
Companies accept (and some prefer) digital Following vast improvements in commercial bank digital platforms during the COVID-19 pandemic, satisfaction levels among small businesses and midsize companies with bank self-service offerings has jumped from 44% in 2022 to 52% in 2024. As might be expected, younger business owners and executives are much more inclined to opt for digital self-service as their primary service model, while older professionals are more likely to prefer working in person with a relationship manager.
The 2025 word of the year in banking: Integration The huge investments made by banks’ digital platforms are not always delivering the expected client experience. One reason is that some clients find it difficult to integrate their banks’ digital offerings with their own technology infrastructure. Integration headaches are an even bigger issue for companies that rely on digital tools for more essential functions and now rank “ease of integration” as a top three criterion when allocating new business to banks.
Cutting through the hype on AI Instead of presenting yet another observation that AI will “transform the industry” in the coming year, Crisil Coalition Greenwich identifies the areas where AI is currently being used by banks, areas under development (e.g., treasury management & payments, credit automation & analytics) and where future opportunities lie.
Top trends to watch in U.S. commercial banking in 2025 identifies the topics to watch in U.S. commercial banking in a year that seems to be starting out with the potential for strong growth and game-changing innovation.